Daniel Thornton
Names
first: 
Daniel 
middle: 
L 
last: 
Thornton 
Contact
Affiliations

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
→ Research Division (weight: 50%)
 website
 location: St. Louis, Missouri (United States)

Lindenwood University
→ Plaster College of Business and Entrepreneurship
→ John W. Hammond Institute for Free Enterprise
→ Center for Applied Economics (weight: 50%)
 location: St. Charles, Missouri (United States)
Research profile
author of:

Tests of the expectations hypothesis: resolving the anomalies when the shortterm rate is the federal funds rate
by Daniel L. Thornton

A note on the expectations hypothesis at the founding of the Fed
by Clemens J. M. Kool & Daniel L. Thornton

The dynamic relationship between the federal funds rate and the Treasury bill rate: an empirical investigation
by Lucio Sarno & Daniel L. Thornton

Forecasting the Treasury's balance at the Fed
by Daniel L. Thornton

Federal funds rate prediction
by Lucio Sarno & Daniel L. Thornton & Giorgio Valente

Nominal interest rates: less than zero?
by Daniel L. Thornton

The cost of checkable deposits in the United States
by Kenneth C. Carraro & Daniel L. Thornton

The discount rate and market interest rates: theory and evidence
by Daniel L. Thornton

The monetaryfiscal policy debate and the AndersenJordan equation
by Dallas S. Batten & Daniel L. Thornton

Solving the 1980s' velocity puzzle: a progress report
by Courtenay C. Stone & Daniel L. Thornton

The borrowedreserves operating procedures: theory and evidence
by Daniel L. Thornton

The effect of monetary policy on shortterm interest rates
by Daniel L. Thornton

The macroeconomic effects of deficit spending: a review
by K. Alec Chrystal & Daniel L. Thornton

Tests of covered interest rate parity
by Daniel L. Thornton

The link between M1 and the monetary base in the 198O's
by Michelle R. Garfinkel & Daniel L. Thornton

Do government deficits matter?
by Daniel L. Thornton

The multiplier approach to the money supply process: a precautionary note
by Michelle R. Garfinkel & Daniel L. Thornton

A primer on cointegration with an application to money and income
by David A. Dickey & Dennis W. Jansen & Daniel L. Thornton

Alternative measures of the monetary base: what are the differences and are they important?
by Michelle R. Garfinkel & Daniel L. Thornton

Targeting M2: the issue of monetary control
by Daniel L. Thornton

An extended series of divisia monetary aggregates
by Daniel L. Thornton & Piyu Yue

Financial innovation, deregulation and the \\"credit view\\" of monetary policy
by Daniel L. Thornton

Is there a case for \\"moderate\\" inflation?
by Alvin L. Marty & Daniel L. Thornton

Does the Fed's new policy of immediate disclosure affect the market?
by Daniel L. Thornton

Using federal funds futures rates to predict Federal Reserve actions
by John C. Robertson & Daniel L. Thornton

Tests of the market's reaction to federal funds rate target changes
by Daniel L. Thornton

Money in a theory of exchange
by Daniel L. Thornton

A history of the asymmetric policy directive
by Daniel L. Thornton & David C. Wheelock

Identifying the liquidity effect at the daily frequency
by Daniel L. Thornton

The expected federal budget surplus: how much confidence should the public and policymakers place in the projections?
by Kevin L. Kliesen & Daniel L. Thornton

Market anticipations of monetary policy actions
by William Poole & Robert H. Rasche & Daniel L. Thornton

LagLength Selection and Tests of Granger Causality between Money and Income.
by Thornton, Daniel L. & Batten, Dallas S.

Why Do TBill Rates React to Discount Rate Changes?
by Thornton, Daniel L.

The Information Content of the Federal Funds Rate: Is It Unique?
by Garfinkel, Michelle R. & Thornton, Daniel L.

Lifting the Veil of Secrecy from Monetary Policy: Evidence from the Fed's Early Discount Rate Policy.
by Thornton, Daniel L.

Maximum Likelihood Estimates of a Partial AdjustmentAdaptive Expectations Model of the Demand for Money.
by Thornton, Daniel L.

Price Expectations and the Demand for Money: A Comment.
by Hafer, R. W. & Thornton, Daniel L.

The empirical failure of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of bond yields
by Lucio Sarno & Daniel L. Thornton & Giorgio Valente

Tests of the expectations hypothesis: resolving the CampbellShiller paradox
by Daniel L. Thornton

What's unique about the federal funds rate? evidence from a spectral perspective
by Lucio Sarno & Daniel L. Thornton & Yi Wen

Monetary policy transparency: transparent about what?
by Daniel L. Thornton

The FOMC in 1981: monetary control in a changing financial environment
by Daniel L. Thornton

The Fed and shortterm rates: Is it open market operations, open mouth operations or interest rate smoothing?
by Thornton, Daniel L.

Testing the expectations hypothesis: some new evidence for Japan
by Daniel L. Thornton

M1 or M2: which is the better monetary target?
by Dallas S. Batten & Daniel L. Thornton

Money demand dynamics: some new evidence
by Daniel L. Thornton

Comments on "Modeling money demand in large industrial countries: Buffer stock and error correction approaches"
by Thornton, Daniel L.

Simple analytics of the money supply process and monetary control
by Daniel L. Thornton

The FOMC's balanceofrisks statement and market expectations of policy actions
by Robert H. Rasche & Daniel L. Thornton

The discount rate and market interest rates: what's the connection?
by Daniel L. Thornton

The efficient market hypothesis and identification in structural VARs
by Lucio Sarno & Daniel L. Thornton

The dynamic relationship between the federal funds rate and the Treasury bill rate: An empirical investigation
by Sarno, Lucio & Thornton, Daniel L.

Why does velocity matter?
by Daniel L. Thornton

Testing the expectations hypothesis: some new evidence for Japan
by Daniel L. Thornton

The Federal Reserve's operating procedure, nonborrowed reserves, borrowed reserves and the liquidity effect
by Thornton, Daniel L.

Forecasting the Treasury's balance at the Fed
by Daniel L. Thornton

Predictions of shortterm rates and the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates
by Daniel L. Thornton

Monetizing the debt
by Daniel L. Thornton

Monetary policy transparency: transparent about what?
by Daniel L. Thornton

An early look at the volatility of money and interest rates under CRR
by Daniel L. Thornton

Lagged and contemporaneous reserve accounting: an alternative view
by Daniel L. Thornton

The FOMC in 1982: deemphasizing M1
by Daniel L. Thornton

The efficient market hypothesis and identification in structural VARs
by Lucio Sarno & Daniel L. Thornton

The discount rate, interest rates and foreign exchange rates: an analysis with daily data
by Dallas S. Batten & Daniel L. Thornton

How robust are the policy conclusions of the St. Louis equation?: some further evidence
by Dallas S. Batten & Daniel L. Thornton

Are weighted monetary aggregates better than simplesum M1?
by Dallas S. Batten & Daniel L. Thornton

The Dynamic Relationship Between the Federal Funds rate and the Treasury Bill Rate: An Empirical Investigation
by Sarno, Lucio & Thornton, Daniel L.

Federal Funds Rate Prediction
by Sarno, Lucio & Daniel l Thornton & Giorgio Valente

Polynomial distributed lags and the estimation of the St. Louis equation
by Dallas S. Batten & Daniel L. Thornton

A dynamic factor analysis of the response of U. S. interest rates to news
by Marco Lippi & Daniel L. Thornton

When did the FOMC begin targeting the federal funds rate? what the verbatim transcripts tell us
by Daniel L. Thornton

Federal Funds Rate Prediction
by Sarno, Lucio & Thornton, Daniel L. & Valente, Giorgio

A Dynamic Factor Analysis of the Response of U.S. Interest Rates to News
by Marco Lippi & Daniel L. Thornton

A note on the expectations hypothesis at the founding of the Fed
by Kool, Clemens J. M. & Thornton, Daniel L.

A new federal funds rate target series: September 27, 1982,  December 31, 1993
by Daniel L. Thornton

Social security, saving, and wealth accumulation
by Daniel L. Thornton

Public officials and job creation
by Thomas A. Garrett & Daniel L. Thornton

Open market operations and the federal funds rate
by Daniel L. Thornton

The Empirical Failure of the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Bond Yields
by Sarno, Lucio & Thornton, Daniel L. & Valente, Giorgio

Tests of the expectations hypothesis: Resolving the anomalies when the shortterm rate is the federal funds rate
by Thornton, Daniel L.

Alternative policy weapons?
by Daniel L. Thornton

Making monetary policy more transparent
by Daniel L. Thornton

The FOMCs considerable period
by Richard G. Anderson & Daniel L. Thornton

The codification of an FOMC procedure
by Daniel L. Thornton

Does a mild recession imply a weak recovery?
by Kevin L. Kliesen & Daniel L. Thornton

The exceptional 1990s
by Cletus C. Coughlin & Daniel L. Thornton

The monetary/fiscal policy debate: a controlled experiment
by Robert H. Rasche & Daniel L. Thornton

The importance of an asymmetric directive
by Daniel L. Thornton

Interest rate targets abandoned
by Daniel L. Thornton & David C. Wheelock

The funds rate target and interest rates
by Daniel L. Thornton

An experiment is underway
by Daniel L. Thornton

How effective is monetary policy?
by Daniel L. Thornton

The golden dollar: the early evidence
by Daniel L. Thornton

Withering dissents
by Daniel L. Thornton

What accounts for the reduced frequency of Fed actions?
by Daniel L. Thornton

Predictability and effectiveness of monetary policy
by Daniel L. Thornton

The monetary policy transmission mechanism?
by Daniel L. Thornton

Greenspan's unconventional view of the longrun inflation/output tradeoff
by Robert H. Rasche & Daniel L. Thornton

\"Measured pace\" in the conduct of monetary policy
by Daniel L. Thornton

Lag length selection and Granger causality
by Dallas S. Batten & Daniel L. Thornton

On the treatment of the weighted initial observation in the AR(1) regression model
by Daniel L. Thornton

Why do Tbill rates react to discount rate changes?
by Daniel L. Thornton

Do bank loan rates exhibit a countercyclical markup?
by Michael J. Dueker & Daniel L. Thornton

The AndersenJordan equation, revisited
by Dallas S. Batten & Daniel L. Thornton

The costs and benefits of price stability: an assessment of Howitt's rule
by Daniel L. Thornton

Lifting the veil of secrecy from monetary policy: evidence from the Fed's early discount rate policy
by Daniel L. Thornton

Discount rate changes and the foreign exchange market
by Dallas S. Batten & Daniel L. Thornton

The market's reaction to discount changes: what's behind the announcement effect?
by Daniel L. Thornton

The daily liquidity effect
by Daniel L. Thornton

A note on the relative efficiency of the CochraneOrcutt and OLS estimators when the autocorrelation process has a finite past
by Daniel L. Thornton

Federal Funds Rate Prediction.
by Sarno, Lucio & Thornton, Daniel L. & Valente, Giorgio

Price expectations and the demand for money: a comment
by Rik Hafer & Daniel L. Thornton

The realbalance effect with resourceusing money: a capitaltheoretic interpretation
by Daniel L. Thornton

Why do market interest rates respond to money announcements?
by Daniel L. Thornton

Tests of price sluggishness in the U.K.
by K. Alec Chrystal & Daniel L. Thornton

Unanticipated money and the anticipated liquidity effect: some further evidence
by Daniel L. Thornton

Discount rate policies of five Federal Reserve Chairmen
by Daniel L. Thornton

Should consumer expenditures be the scale variable in empirical money demand equations?
by Daniel L. Thornton

What do Almon's endpoint constraints constrain?
by Dallas S. Batten & Daniel L. Thornton

The appropriate autocorrelation transformation when the autocorrelation process has a finite past
by Daniel L. Thornton

Asymmetry in the prime rate and firms' preference for internal finance
by Michael J. Dueker & Daniel L. Thornton

Weighted monetary aggregates as intermediate targets
by Dallas S. Batten & Daniel L. Thornton

The appropriate interest rate and scale variable in money demand: results from nonnested tests
by Daniel L. Thornton

Identifying the liquidity effect: the case of nonborrowed reserves
by Daniel L. Thornton

The information content of discount rate announcements: what's behind the announcement effect?
by Daniel L. Thornton

Endpoint constraints and the St. Louis equation: a clarification
by Dallas S. Batten & Daniel L. Thornton

Complete results for lag length selection
by Dallas S. Batten & Daniel L. Thornton

Laglength selection criteria: empirical results from the St. Louis equation
by Dallas S. Batten & Daniel L. Thornton

The budget constraint, endogenous money and the relative importance of fiscal policy under alternative financing schemes
by Daniel L. Thornton

The relationship between the federal funds rate and the Fed's federal funds rate target: is it open market or open mouth operations?
by Daniel L. Thornton

The Federal Reserve's operating procedure, nonborrowed reserves, borrowed reserves and the liquidity effect
by Daniel L. Thornton

The Fed's inflation objective
by Daniel L. Thornton

The relationship between the federal funds rate and the Fed's federal funds rate target: is it open market or open mouth operations?
by Thornton, Daniel L.

A note on the efficiency of the cochraneorcutt estimator of the ar(1) regression model
by Thornton, Daniel L.

Monetary anticipations and the demand for money: Reply to MacKinnon and Milbourne
by Carr, Jack & Darby, Michael R. & Thornton, Daniel L.

Discount rate changes and the foreign exchange market
by Batten, Dallas S. & Thornton, Daniel L.

The empirical significance of the real balance effect
by Thornton, Daniel L. & Smith, Paul E.

On the informational content of spot and forward exchange rates
by Alec Chrystal, K. & Thornton, Daniel L.

The effect of unanticipated money on the money and foreign exchange markets
by Thornton, Daniel L.

Money, net wealth, and the realbalance effect
by Thornton, Daniel L.

The AndersenJordan equation revisited
by Batten, Dallas S. & Thornton, Daniel L.

The government budget constraint with endogenous money
by Thornton, Daniel L.

The expectation hypothesis of the term structure of very shortterm rates: statistical tests and economic value
by Pasquale Della Corte & Lucio Sarno & Daniel L. Thornton

The lower and upper bounds of the Federal Open Market Committee's longrun inflation objective
by Daniel L. Thornton

What's Unique About the Federal Funds Rate? Evidence from a Spectral Perspective*
by Lucio Sarno & Daniel L. Thornton & Yi Wen

The federal funds and longterm rates
by Daniel L. Thornton

The daily and policyrelevant liquidity effects
by Daniel L. Thornton

Resolving the unbiasedness and forward premium puzzles
by Daniel L. Thornton

The Expectation Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Very ShortTerm Rates: Statistical Tests and Economic Value
by Della Corte, Pasquale & Sarno, Lucio & Thornton, Daniel L.

The unusual behavior of the federal funds and 10year Treasury rates: a conundrum or Goodhart’s Law?
by Daniel L. Thornton

Measure for measure: headline versus core inflation
by Daniel L. Thornton

Subprime side effects in the federal funds market
by Daniel L. Thornton

Open market operations and the federal funds rate
by Daniel L. Thornton

A primer on the mortgage market and mortgage finance
by Daniel J. McDonald & Daniel L. Thornton

Housing and the \"R\" word
by Daniel L. Thornton

Monetary policy: why money matters and interest rates don't
by Daniel L. Thornton

The expectation hypothesis of the term structure of very shortterm rates: Statistical tests and economic value
by Della Corte, Pasquale & Sarno, Lucio & Thornton, Daniel L.

Tests of the Expectations Hypothesis: Resolving the CampbellShiller Paradox
by Thornton, Daniel L.

The Fed, liquidity, and credit allocation
by Daniel L. Thornton

Is there less agreement about inflation?
by Daniel L. Thornton

The Empirical Failure of the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Bond Yields
by Sarno, Lucio & Thornton, Daniel L. & Valente, Giorgio

Walter Bagehot, the discount window, and TAF
by Daniel L. Thornton

A perspective on the current recession: it's not the \\"worst case\\" yet
by Daniel L. Thornton

What caused longterm rates to rise?
by Daniel L. Thornton

What the LiborOIS spread says
by Daniel L. Thornton

Negating the inflation potential of the Fed's lending programs
by Daniel L. Thornton

The effect of the Fed’s purchase of longterm treasuries on the yield curve
by Daniel L. Thornton

Revisiting the predictability of bond risk premia
by Daniel L. Thornton & Giorgio Valente

Resolving the unbiasedness puzzle in the foreign exchange market
by Daniel L. Thornton

Would quantitative easing sooner have tempered the financial crisis and economic recession?
by Daniel L. Thornton

How did we get to inflation targeting and where do we go now? a perspective from the U.S. experience
by Daniel L. Thornton

The identification of the response of interest rates to monetary policy actions using marketbased measures of monetary policy shocks
by Daniel L. Thornton

Personal saving and economic growth
by Daniel L. Thornton

The case for \\"inflation first\\" monetary policy
by Daniel L. Thornton

The relationship between the daily and policyrelevant liquidity effects
by Daniel L. Thornton

Testing the Expectations Hypothesis: Some New Evidence for Japan
by Thornton, DanielL.

Monetizing the debt
by Daniel L. Thornton

Predictions of shortterm rates and the expectations hypothesis
by Massimo Guidolin & Daniel L. Thornton

The Phillips curve and US monetary policy: what the FOMC transcripts tell us
by Ellen E. Meade & Daniel L. Thornton

Can the FOMC increase the funds rate without reducing reserves?
by Daniel L. Thornton

Which comes first: inflation or the FOMC's funds rate target?
by Daniel L. Thornton

Predicting bond excess returns with forward rates: an assetallocation perspective
by Daniel L. Thornton & Giorgio Valente

Would QE2 have a significant effect on economic growth, employment, or inflation?
by Daniel L. Thornton

The effectiveness of unconventional monetary policy: the term auction facility
by Daniel L. Thornton

The downside of quantitative easing
by Daniel L. Thornton

Monetary policy and longerterm rates: an opportunity for greater transparency
by Daniel L. Thornton

What does the change in the FOMC's statement of objectives mean?
by Daniel L. Thornton

Monetary policy at the zero bound
by Daniel L. Thornton

Core versus headline inflation: an opportunity for greater transparency
by Daniel L. Thornton

Is the FOMC’s policy inflating asset prices?
by Daniel L. Thornton

Core versus headline inflation again
by Daniel L. Thornton

The federal debt: too little revenue or too much spending
by Kevin L. Kliesen & Daniel L. Thornton

The federal debt: what’s the source of the increase in spending?
by Kevin L. Kliesen & Daniel L. Thornton

The FOMC’s interest rate policy: how long is the long run?
by Daniel L. Thornton

Tax rates and revenue since the 1970s
by Kevin L. Kliesen & Daniel L. Thornton

How did we get to inflation targeting and where do we need to go to now? a perspective from the U.S. experience
by Daniel L. Thornton

How good are the government’s deficit and debt projections and should we care?
by Kevin L. Kliesen & Daniel L. Thornton

The effectiveness of unconventional monetary policy: the term auction facility
by Daniel L. Thornton

Why is employment growth so low?
by Juan M. Sanchez & Daniel L. Thornton

Inflation objective and policy credibility: a potential problem for the FOMC
by Daniel L. Thornton

The dual mandate: has the Fed changed its objective?
by Daniel L. Thornton

Quantitative easing and money growth: potential for higher inflation?
by Daniel L. Thornton

The Phillips curve and US monetary policy: what the FOMC transcripts tell us
by Ellen E. Meade & Daniel L. Thornton

Evidence on the portfolio balance channel of quantitative easing
by Daniel L. Thornton

The Federal Reserve’s response to the financial crisis: what it did and what it should have done
by Daniel L. Thornton

The Phillips Curve and US Monetary Policy: What the FOMC Transcripts Tell Us
by Ellen E. Meade & Daniel L. Thornton

Monetary policy: why money matters, and interest rates don’t
by Daniel L. Thornton

The efficacy of monetary policy: a tale from two decades
by Daniel L. Thornton

Verbal guidance and the efficacy of forward guidance
by Daniel L. Thornton

Greenspan’s conundrum and the Fed’s ability to affect longterm yields
by Daniel L. Thornton

The efficacy of the FOMC’s zero interest rate policy
by Daniel L. Thornton

A proposal for improving forward guidance
by Leo Krippner & Daniel L. Thornton

Is the FOMC’s unemployment rate threshold a good idea?
by Daniel L. Thornton

Why is output growth so slow?
by Daniel L. Thornton

The effect of underreporting on LIBOR rates
by Andrea Monticini & Daniel L. Thornton

Channels of monetary policy : conference introduction
by Daniel L. Thornton & David C. Wheelock

The U.S. deficit/debt problem: a longerrun perspective
by Daniel L. Thornton

How effective is central bank forward guidance?
by Clemens J. M. Kool & Daniel L. Thornton

OutofSample Predictions of Bond Excess Returns and Forward Rates: An Asset Allocation Perspective
by Daniel L. Thornton & Giorgio Valente

Channels of monetary policy. Proceedings of the Nineteenth Annual Economic Policy Conference held October 2021, 1994
by Daniel L. Thornton & David C. Wheelock

Does the economy need more spending now?
by Daniel L. Thornton

A perspective on possible Fed exit strategies
by Daniel L. Thornton

The effect of underreporting on LIBOR rates
by Monticini, Andrea & Thornton, Daniel L.

An Evaluation of EventStudy Evidence on the Effectiveness of the FOMC’s LSAP Program: Are the Announcement Effects Identified?
by Daniel L. Thornton

Is nominal GDP targeting a rule policymakers could accept?
by Daniel L. Thornton

Has QE been effective?
by Daniel L. Thornton

QE: is there a portfolio balance effect?
by Daniel L. Thornton

Are Virtual “Currencies” Likely to Succeed?
by Daniel L. Thornton

Making sense of dissents: a history of FOMC dissents
by Daniel L. Thornton & David C. Wheelock

How Effective Is Central Bank Forward Guidance?
by Clemens J. M. Kool & Daniel L. Thornton

The identification of the response of interest rates to monetary policy actions using marketbased measures of monetary policy shocks
by Daniel L. Thornton

Channels of monetary policy : conference introduction
by Daniel L. Thornton & David C. Wheelock

Guest editor's introduction: What monetary policy can and cannot do
by Thornton, Daniel L.

Monetary policy: Why money matters (and interest rates don’t)
by Thornton, Daniel L.

How Effective Is Central Bank Forward Guidance?
by C. J. M. Kool & D. L. Thornton

Channels of monetary policy. Proceedings of the Nineteenth Annual Economic Policy Conference held October 2021, 1994
by David R. Allardice & Daniel L. Thornton

How Effective Is Central Bank Forward Guidance?
by Clemens J. M. Kool AuthorNameFirst Clemens J. M. & Daniel L. Thornton AuthorNameFirst Daniel L.

Understanding the Predictability of Excess Returns
by Daniel L. Thornton

The daily and policyrelevant liquidity effects
by Thornton, Daniel L.

Effectiveness of QE: An assessment of eventstudy evidence
by Thornton, Daniel L.

Predictions of shortterm rates and the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates
by Guidolin, Massimo & Thornton, Daniel L.

Greenspan's Conundrum and the Fed's Ability to Affect Long‐Term Yields
by DANIEL L. THORNTON

Resolving the unbiasedness and forward premium puzzles
by Daniel L. Thornton

Predictions of shortterm rates and the expectations hypothesis
by Guidolin, Massimo & Thornton, Daniel L.

The expectations theory and the founding of the fed: another look at the evidence
by Kool, C. J. M. & Thornton, D.

A Primer on Cointegration with an Application to Money and Income
by David A. Dickey & Dennis W. Jansen & Daniel L. Thornton
edited by

Further Evidence on Greenspan’s Conundrum
by Cletus C. Coughlin & Daniel L. Thornton