Emanuel Moench

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Identifer

Contact

Affiliations

• Frankfurt School of Finance and Management
  • EDIRC entry
  • location:

Research profile

author of:

• Anchored Inflation Expectations
  American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association (2023)
  by Carlos Carvalho & Stefano Eusepi & Emanuel Moench & Bruce Preston
  (ReDIF-article, aea:aejmac:v:15:y:2023:i:1:p:1-47)
• Fundamental disagreement
  Working papers, Banque de France (2014)
  by P. Andrade & R. Crump & S. Eusepi & E. Moench
  (ReDIF-paper, bfr:banfra:524)
• Household Beliefs about Fiscal Dominance
  Working papers, Banque de France (2025)
  by Philippe Andrade & Erwan Gautier & Eric Mengus & Emanuel Mönch & Tobias Schmidt
  (ReDIF-paper, bfr:banfra:986)
• The term structures of global yields
  BIS Papers chapters, Bank for International Settlements (2019)
  by Emanuel Mönch
  (ReDIF-chapter, bis:bisbpc:102-02)
• The asymmetric and persistent effects of Fed policy on global bond yields
  BIS Working Papers, Bank for International Settlements (2024)
  by Tobias Adrian & Gaston Gelos & Nora Lamersdorf & Emanuel Moench
  (ReDIF-paper, bis:biswps:1195)
• The Pre-FOMC Announcement Drift
  Journal of Finance, American Finance Association (2015)
  by David O. Lucca & Emanuel Moench
  (ReDIF-article, bla:jfinan:v:70:y:2015:i:1:p:329-371)
• Regression Based Estimation of Dynamic Asset Pricing Models
  CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2015)
  by Moench, Emanuel & Adrian, Tobias & Crump, Richard K.
  (ReDIF-paper, cpr:ceprdp:10449)
• Dynamic Leverage Asset Pricing
  CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2016)
  by Adrian, Tobias & , & Shin, Hyun Song
  (ReDIF-paper, cpr:ceprdp:11466)
• Anchored Inflation Expectations
  CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2019)
  by Carvalho, Carlos & Eusepi, Stefano & , & Preston, Bruce
  (ReDIF-paper, cpr:ceprdp:13900)
• Fundamental Disagreement about Monetary Policy and the Term Structure of Interest Rates
  CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2020)
  by Cao, Shuo & Crump, Richard K. & ,
  (ReDIF-paper, cpr:ceprdp:15122)
• Procyclical Asset Management and Bond Risk Premia
  CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2020)
  by Barbu, Alexandru & Fricke, Christoph & ,
  (ReDIF-paper, cpr:ceprdp:15123)
• What Moves Treasury Yields?
  CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2022)
  by Moench, Emanuel & Soofi Siavash, Soroosh
  (ReDIF-paper, cpr:ceprdp:15978)
• Equity premium predictability over the business cycle
  CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2021)
  by , & Stein, Tobias
  (ReDIF-paper, cpr:ceprdp:16357)
• Safe asset scarcity, collateral reuse, and market functioning
  CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2022)
  by Jank, Stephan & Moench, Emanuel & Schneider, Michael
  (ReDIF-paper, cpr:ceprdp:16439)
• Would Households Understand Average Inflation Targeting?
  CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2022)
  by Hoffmann, Mathias & Moench, Emanuel & Pavlova, Lora & Schultefrankenfeld, Guido
  (ReDIF-paper, cpr:ceprdp:16786)
• Towards a Monthly Business Cycle Chronology for the Euro Area
  CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2004)
  by Uhlig, Harald & Mönch, Emanuel
  (ReDIF-paper, cpr:ceprdp:4377)
• Sectoral Price Data and Models of Price Setting
  CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2009)
  by Mackowiak, Bartosz & Wiederholt, Mirko & Moench, Emanuel
  (ReDIF-paper, cpr:ceprdp:7339)
• Household Beliefs about Fiscal Dominance
  HEC Research Papers Series, HEC Paris (2025)
  by Andrade, Philippe & Gautier, Erwan & Mengus, Eric & Moench, Emanuel & Schmidt, Tobias
  (ReDIF-paper, ebg:heccah:1535)
• The ECB’s price stability framework: past experience, and current and future challenges
  Occasional Paper Series, European Central Bank (2021)
  by Cecion, Martina & Coenen, Günter & Gerke, Rafael & Le Bihan, Hervé & Motto, Roberto & Aguilar, Pablo & Ajevskis, Viktors & Giesen, Sebastian & Albertazzi, Ugo & Gilbert, Niels & Al-Haschimi, Alexander
  (ReDIF-paper, ecb:ecbops:2021269)
• Climate change and monetary policy in the euro area
  Occasional Paper Series, European Central Bank (2021)
  by Drudi, Francesco & Moench, Emanuel & Holthausen, Cornelia & Weber, Pierre-François & Ferrucci, Gianluigi & Setzer, Ralph & Adao, Bernardino & Dées, Stéphane & Alogoskoufis, Spyros & Téllez, Mar Delgad
  (ReDIF-paper, ecb:ecbops:2021271)
• Clear, consistent and engaging: ECB monetary policy communication in a changing world
  Occasional Paper Series, European Central Bank (2021)
  by Assenmacher, Katrin & Glöckler, Gabriel & Holton, Sarah & Trautmann, Peter & Ioannou, Demosthenes & Mee, Simon & Alonso, Conception & Argiri, Eleni & Arigoni, Filippo & Bakk-Simon, Klára & Bergbauer,
  (ReDIF-paper, ecb:ecbops:2021274)
• Forecasting the yield curve in a data-rich environment: a no-arbitrage factor-augmented VAR approach
  Working Paper Series, European Central Bank (2005)
  by Mönch, Emanuel
  (ReDIF-paper, ecb:ecbwps:2005544)
• A hierarchical factor analysis of U.S. housing market dynamics
  Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society (2011)
  by Emanuel Moench & Serena Ng
  (ReDIF-article, ect:emjrnl:v:14:y:2011:i:1:p:c1-c24)
• Forecasting the yield curve in a data-rich environment: A no-arbitrage factor-augmented VAR approach
  Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier (2008)
  by Moench, Emanuel
  (ReDIF-article, eee:econom:v:146:y:2008:i:1:p:26-43)
• Natural disasters as macroeconomic tail risks
  Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier (2025)
  by Chavleishvili, Sulkhan & Moench, Emanuel
  (ReDIF-article, eee:econom:v:247:y:2025:i:c:s0304407624002653)
• The persistent effects of a false news shock
  Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier (2011)
  by Carvalho, Carlos & Klagge, Nicholas & Moench, Emanuel
  (ReDIF-article, eee:empfin:v:18:y:2011:i:4:p:597-615)
• What predicts US recessions?
  International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier (2016)
  by Liu, Weiling & Moench, Emanuel
  (ReDIF-article, eee:intfor:v:32:y:2016:i:4:p:1138-1150)
• Pricing the term structure with linear regressions
  Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier (2013)
  by Adrian, Tobias & Crump, Richard K. & Moench, Emanuel
  (ReDIF-article, eee:jfinec:v:110:y:2013:i:1:p:110-138)
• Regression-based estimation of dynamic asset pricing models
  Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier (2015)
  by Adrian, Tobias & Crump, Richard K. & Moench, Emanuel
  (ReDIF-article, eee:jfinec:v:118:y:2015:i:2:p:211-244)
• What moves treasury yields?
  Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier (2022)
  by Moench, Emanuel & Soofi-Siavash, Soroosh
  (ReDIF-article, eee:jfinec:v:146:y:2022:i:3:p:1016-1043)
• Comment on “Monetary Policy Communication, Policy Slope, and the Stock Market” by Andreas Neuhierl and Michael Weber
  Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier (2019)
  by Moench, Emanuel & Stein, Tobias
  (ReDIF-article, eee:moneco:v:108:y:2019:i:c:p:156-161)
• Would households understand average inflation targeting?
  Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier (2022)
  by Hoffmann, Mathias & Moench, Emanuel & Pavlova, Lora & Schultefrankenfeld, Guido
  (ReDIF-article, eee:moneco:v:129:y:2022:i:s:p:s52-s66)
• Sectoral price data and models of price setting
  Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier (2009)
  by Maćkowiak, Bartosz & Moench, Emanuel & Wiederholt, Mirko
  (ReDIF-article, eee:moneco:v:56:y:2009:i:s:p:s78-s99)
• Fundamental disagreement
  Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier (2016)
  by Andrade, Philippe & Crump, Richard K. & Eusepi, Stefano & Moench, Emanuel
  (ReDIF-article, eee:moneco:v:83:y:2016:i:c:p:106-128)
• Decomposing real and nominal yield curves
  Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier (2016)
  by Abrahams, Michael & Adrian, Tobias & Crump, Richard K. & Moench, Emanuel & Yu, Rui
  (ReDIF-article, eee:moneco:v:84:y:2016:i:c:p:182-200)
• Anchored inflation expectations
  CAMA Working Papers, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University (2020)
  by Carlos Carvalho & Stefano Eusepi & Emanuel Moench & Bruce Preston
  (ReDIF-paper, een:camaaa:2020-25)
• Household Beliefs about Fiscal Dominance
  Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston (2025)
  by Philippe Andrade & Erwan Gautier & Eric Mengus & Emanuel Moench
  (ReDIF-paper, fip:fedbwp:99721)
• Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics 2020 CEBRA Annual Meeting Session Summary
  Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland (2021)
  by Edward S. Knotek & Michael Lamla & Emanuel Moench & Robert W. Rich & Raphael Schoenle & Michael Weber
  (ReDIF-article, fip:fedcec:89985)
• Why is the market share of adjustable-rate mortgages so low?
  Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2010)
  by Diego Aragon & Emanuel Moench & James Vickery
  (ReDIF-article, fip:fednci:y:2010:i:dec:n:v.16no.8)
• A Look at the Accuracy of Policy Expectations
  Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2011)
  by Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Emanuel Moench
  (ReDIF-paper, fip:fednls:86762)
• The Puzzling Pre-FOMC Announcement “Drift”
  Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2012)
  by David O. Lucca & Emanuel Moench
  (ReDIF-paper, fip:fednls:86814)
• Making a Statement: How Did Professional Forecasters React to the August 2011 FOMC Statement?
  Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2013)
  by Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Emanuel Moench
  (ReDIF-paper, fip:fednls:86850)
• Do Treasury Term Premia Rise around Monetary Tightenings?
  Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2013)
  by Tobias Adrian & Richard K. Crump & Emanuel Moench
  (ReDIF-paper, fip:fednls:86867)
• Preparing for Takeoff? Professional Forecasters and the June 2013 FOMC Meeting
  Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2013)
  by Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Emanuel Moench
  (ReDIF-paper, fip:fednls:86893)
• Treasury Term Premia: 1961-Present
  Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2014)
  by Tobias Adrian & Richard K. Crump & Benjamin Mills & Emanuel Moench
  (ReDIF-paper, fip:fednls:86948)
• Connecting “The Dots”: Disagreement in the Federal Open Market Committee
  Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2014)
  by Richard K. Crump & Troy Davig & Stefano Eusepi & Emanuel Moench
  (ReDIF-paper, fip:fednls:86978)
• Survey Measures of Expectations for the Policy Rate
  Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2014)
  by Jeremiah P. Boyle & Richard K. Crump & Emanuel Moench & Matthew Raskin & Carlo Rosa & Lisa Stowe
  (ReDIF-paper, fip:fednls:86999)
• Interest Rate Derivatives and Monetary Policy Expectations
  Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2014)
  by Jeremiah P. Boyle & Richard K. Crump & Emanuel Moench & Matthew Raskin & Carlo Rosa & Lisa Stowe
  (ReDIF-paper, fip:fednls:87000)
• Data Insight: Which Growth Rate? It’s a Weighty Subject
  Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2014)
  by Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & David O. Lucca & Emanuel Moench
  (ReDIF-paper, fip:fednls:87004)
• The Pre-FOMC Announcement Drift: More Recent Evidence
  Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2018)
  by David O. Lucca & Emanuel Moench
  (ReDIF-paper, fip:fednls:87294)
• Pricing the term structure with linear regressions
  Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2008)
  by Tobias Adrian & Emanuel Moench
  (ReDIF-paper, fip:fednsr:340)
• The persistent effects of a false news shock
  Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2009)
  by Carlos Carvalho & Nicholas Klagge & Emanuel Moench
  (ReDIF-paper, fip:fednsr:374)
• Dynamic hierarchical factor models
  Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2009)
  by Emanuel Moench & Serena Ng & Simon M. Potter
  (ReDIF-paper, fip:fednsr:412)
• Financial intermediation, asset prices, and macroeconomic dynamics
  Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2010)
  by Tobias Adrian & Emanuel Moench & Hyun Song Shin
  (ReDIF-paper, fip:fednsr:422)
• Macro risk premium and intermediary balance sheet quantities
  Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2010)
  by Tobias Adrian & Emanuel Moench & Hyun Song Shin
  (ReDIF-paper, fip:fednsr:428)
• Regression-based estimation of dynamic asset pricing models
  Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2011)
  by Tobias Adrian & Richard K. Crump & Emanuel Moench
  (ReDIF-paper, fip:fednsr:493)
• The pre-FOMC announcement drift
  Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2011)
  by David O. Lucca & Emanuel Moench
  (ReDIF-paper, fip:fednsr:512)
• Decomposing real and nominal yield curves
  Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2012)
  by Michael Abrahams & Tobias Adrian & Richard K. Crump & Emanuel Moench
  (ReDIF-paper, fip:fednsr:570)
• Forecasting through the rear-view mirror: data revisions and bond return predictability
  Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2012)
  by Eric Ghysels & Casidhe Horan & Emanuel Moench
  (ReDIF-paper, fip:fednsr:581)
• Dynamic Leverage Asset Pricing
  Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2013)
  by Tobias Adrian & Emanuel Moench & Hyun Song Shin
  (ReDIF-paper, fip:fednsr:625)
• Fundamental disagreement
  Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2013)
  by Philippe Andrade & Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Emanuel Moench
  (ReDIF-paper, fip:fednsr:655)
• What predicts U.S. recessions?
  Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2014)
  by Weiling Liu & Emanuel Moench
  (ReDIF-paper, fip:fednsr:691)
• The term structure of expectations and bond yields
  Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2016)
  by Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Emanuel Moench
  (ReDIF-paper, fip:fednsr:775)
• Fundamental Disagreement about Monetary Policy and the Term Structure of Interest Rates
  Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2020)
  by Shuo Cao & Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Emanuel Moench
  (ReDIF-paper, fip:fednsr:88406)
• The Term Structure of Expectations
  Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2021)
  by Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Emanuel Moench & Bruce Preston
  (ReDIF-paper, fip:fednsr:93341)
• Is There Hope for the Expectations Hypothesis?
  Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2024)
  by Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Emanuel Moench
  (ReDIF-paper, fip:fednsr:98133)
• How Do We Learn About the Long Run?
  Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2025)
  by Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Emanuel Moench & Bruce Preston
  (ReDIF-paper, fip:fednsr:99868)
• Unknown item RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2005-023 (paper)
• Carbon Intensity, Productivity, and Growth
  Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series, Bank of Lithuania (2023)
  by Soroosh Soofi-Siavash & Emanuel Moench
  (ReDIF-paper, lie:wpaper:115)
• What Moves Treasury Yields?
  Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series, Bank of Lithuania (2021)
  by Soroosh Soofi-Siavash & Emanuel Moench
  (ReDIF-paper, lie:wpaper:88)
• Towards a Monthly Business Cycle Chronology for the Euro Area
  Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (2005)
  by Emanuel Mönch & Harald Uhlig
  (ReDIF-article, oec:stdkaa:5km7v183t48r)
• Forecasting through the Rearview Mirror: Data Revisions and Bond Return Predictability
  The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies (2018)
  by Eric Ghysels & Casidhe Horan & Emanuel Moench
  (ReDIF-article, oup:rfinst:v:31:y:2018:i:2:p:678-714.)
• Macro Risk Premium and Intermediary Balance Sheet Quantities
  IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund (2010)
  by Tobias Adrian & Emanuel Moench & Hyun Song Shin
  (ReDIF-article, pal:imfecr:v:58:y:2010:i:1:p:179-207)
• Sectoral Price Data and Models of Price Setting
  2009 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics (2009)
  by Mirko Wiederholt & Emanuel Moench & Bartosz Maćkowiak
  (ReDIF-paper, red:sed009:666)
• Financial Intermediation, Asset Prices, and Macroeconomic Dynamics
  2010 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics (2010)
  by Hyun Song Shin & Emanuel Moench & Tobias Adrian
  (ReDIF-paper, red:sed010:297)
• Noisy Information and Fundamental Disagreement
  2014 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics (2014)
  by Stefano Eusepi & Richard Crump & Emanuel Moench & Philippe Andrade
  (ReDIF-paper, red:sed014:797)
• What drives long-run inflation expectations?
  2015 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics (2015)
  by Stefano Eusepi & Emanuel Moench & Bruce Preston & Carlos Carvalho
  (ReDIF-paper, red:sed015:1228)
• Procyclical asset management and bond risk premia
  ESRB Working Paper Series, European Systemic Risk Board (2021)
  by Barbu, Alexandru & Fricke, Christoph & Moench, Emanuel
  (ReDIF-paper, srk:srkwps:2021116)
• Dynamic Hierarchical Factor Model
  The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press (2013)
  by Emanuel Moench & Serena Ng & Simon Potter
  (ReDIF-article, tpr:restat:v:95:y:2013:i:5:p:1811-1817)
• A hierarchical factor analysis of U.S. housing market dynamics
  Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society (2011)
  by Emanuel Moench & Serena Ng
  (ReDIF-article, wly:emjrnl:v:14:y:2011:i::p:c1-c24)
• Term structure surprises: the predictive content of curvature, level, and slope
  Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. (2012)
  by Emanuel Moench
  (ReDIF-article, wly:japmet:v:27:y:2012:i:4:p:574-602)
• Would households understand average inflation targeting?
  Discussion Papers, Deutsche Bundesbank (2022)
  by Hoffmann, Mathias & Pavlova, Lora & Mönch, Emanuel & Schultefrankenfeld, Guido
  (ReDIF-paper, zbw:bubdps:172022)
• Equity premium predictability over the business cycle
  Discussion Papers, Deutsche Bundesbank (2021)
  by Mönch, Emanuel & Stein, Tobias
  (ReDIF-paper, zbw:bubdps:252021)
• Forceful or persistent: Wow the ECB's new inflation target affects households' inflation expectations
  Discussion Papers, Deutsche Bundesbank (2023)
  by Hoffmann, Mathias & Mönch, Emanuel & Pavlova, Lora & Schultefrankenfeld, Guido
  (ReDIF-paper, zbw:bubdps:279574)
• Procyclical asset management and bond risk premia
  Discussion Papers, Deutsche Bundesbank (2020)
  by Barbu, Alexandru & Fricke, Christoph & Mönch, Emanuel
  (ReDIF-paper, zbw:bubdps:382020)
• Safe asset shortage and collateral reuse
  Discussion Papers, Deutsche Bundesbank (2021)
  by Jank, Stephan & Mönch, Emanuel & Schneider, Michael
  (ReDIF-paper, zbw:bubdps:392021)
• OTC discount
  Discussion Papers, Deutsche Bundesbank (2019)
  by de Roure, Calebe & Mönch, Emanuel & Pelizzon, Loriana & Schneider, Michael
  (ReDIF-paper, zbw:bubdps:422019)
• OTC discount
  SAFE Working Paper Series, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE (2021)
  by de Roure, Calebe & Mönch, Emanuel & Pelizzon, Loriana & Schneider, Michael
  (ReDIF-paper, zbw:safewp:298)
• Safe asset shortage and collateral reuse
  SAFE Working Paper Series, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE (2022)
  by Jank, Stephan & Mönch, Emanuel & Schneider, Michael
  (ReDIF-paper, zbw:safewp:355)
• Towards a monthly business cycle chronology for the euro area
  SFB 649 Discussion Papers, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk (2005)
  by Mönch, Emanuel & Uhlig, Harald
  (ReDIF-paper, zbw:sfb649:sfb649dp2005-023)
• Forceful or persistent: How the ECB's new inflation target affects households' inflation expectations
  ZEW Discussion Papers, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research (2024)
  by Hoffmann, Mathias & Mönch, Emanuel & Pavlova, Lora & Schultefrankenfeld, Guido
  (ReDIF-paper, zbw:zewdip:312570)