Travis John Berge

Names

Identifer

Contact

Affiliations

• Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System)
  • EDIRC entry
  • location:

Research profile

author of:

• Evaluating the Classification of Economic Activity into Recessions and Expansions
  American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association (2011)
  by Travis J. Berge & Òscar Jordà
  (ReDIF-article, aea:aejmac:v:3:y:2011:i:2:p:246-77)
• When is the Fiscal Multiplier High? A Comparison of Four Business Cycle Phases
  Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge (2020)
  by Berge, T. & De Ridder, M. & Pfajfar, D.
  (ReDIF-paper, cam:camdae:2041)
• A Chronology of International Business Cycles Through Non-parametric Decoding
  Working Papers, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics (2010)
  by Oscar Jorda & Hsieh Fushing & Shu-Chun Chen & Travis J. Berge
  (ReDIF-paper, cda:wpaper:216)
• The Classification of Economic Activity into Expansions and Recessions
  Working Papers, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics (2009)
  by Oscar Jorda & Travis Berge
  (ReDIF-paper, cda:wpaper:308)
• When is the fiscal multiplier high? A comparison of four business cycle phases
  European Economic Review, Elsevier (2021)
  by Berge, Travis & De Ridder, Maarten & Pfajfar, Damjan
  (ReDIF-article, eee:eecrev:v:138:y:2021:i:c:s0014292121001823)
• Understanding survey-based inflation expectations
  International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier (2018)
  by Berge, Travis J.
  (ReDIF-article, eee:intfor:v:34:y:2018:i:4:p:788-801)
• Evaluating the conditionality of judgmental forecasts
  International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier (2019)
  by Berge, Travis J. & Chang, Andrew C. & Sinha, Nitish R.
  (ReDIF-article, eee:intfor:v:35:y:2019:i:4:p:1627-1635)
• When is the fiscal multiplier high? A comparison of four business cycle phases
  LSE Research Online Documents on Economics, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library (2021)
  by Berge, Travis & De Ridder, Maarten & Pfajfar, Damjan
  (ReDIF-paper, ehl:lserod:111517)
• Future recession risks
  FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2010)
  by Travis J. Berge & Òscar Jordà
  (ReDIF-article, fip:fedfel:y:2010:i:aug9:n:2010-24)
• Future recession risks: an update
  FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2011)
  by Travis J. Berge & Early Elias & Òscar Jordà
  (ReDIF-article, fip:fedfel:y:2011:i:nov.14:n:2011-35)
• A chronology of turning points in economic activity: Spain 1850-2011
  Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2011)
  by Travis J. Berge & Òscar Jordà
  (ReDIF-paper, fip:fedfwp:2011-28)
• Understanding Survey Based Inflation Expectations
  Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2017)
  by Travis J. Berge
  (ReDIF-paper, fip:fedgfe:2017-46)
• Evaluating the Conditionality of Judgmental Forecasts
  Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2019)
  by Travis J. Berge & Andrew C. Chang & Nitish R. Sinha
  (ReDIF-paper, fip:fedgfe:2019-02)
• Duration Dependence, Monetary Policy Asymmetries, and the Business Cycle
  Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2019)
  by Travis J. Berge & Damjan Pfajfar
  (ReDIF-paper, fip:fedgfe:2019-20)
• Which Output Gap Estimates Are Stable in Real Time and Why?
  Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2020)
  by Alessandro Barbarino & Travis J. Berge & Han Chen & Andrea Stella
  (ReDIF-paper, fip:fedgfe:2020-102)
• Time-varying Uncertainty of the Federal Reserve’s Output Gap Estimate
  Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2020)
  by Travis J. Berge
  (ReDIF-paper, fip:fedgfe:2020-12)
• When is the Fiscal Multiplier High? A Comparison of Four Business Cycle Phases
  Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2020)
  by Travis J. Berge & Maarten De Ridder & Damjan Pfajfar
  (ReDIF-paper, fip:fedgfe:2020-26)
• Which Market Indicators Best Forecast Recessions?
  FEDS Notes, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2016)
  by Travis J. Berge & Nitish R. Sinha & Michael Smolyansky
  (ReDIF-paper, fip:fedgfn:2016-08-02)
• Underlying Inflation: An Ensemble Averaging Approach
  FEDS Notes, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2025)
  by Gianni Amisano & Travis J. Berge & Simon C. Smith
  (ReDIF-paper, fip:fedgfn:2025-03-25)
• Global effects of U.S. monetary policy: is unconventional policy different?
  Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City (2014)
  by Travis J. Berge & Guangye Cao
  (ReDIF-article, fip:fedker:00010)
• Has globalization increased the synchronicity of international business cycles?
  Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City (2012)
  by Travis J. Berge
  (ReDIF-article, fip:fedker:y:2012:i:qiii:n:v.97no.3:x:3)
• The global impact of U.S. monetary policy
  Macro Bulletin, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City (2014)
  by Travis J. Berge & Guangye Cao
  (ReDIF-article, fip:fedkmb:00008)
• Forecasting disconnected exchange rates
  Research Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City (2011)
  by Travis J. Berge
  (ReDIF-paper, fip:fedkrw:rwp11-12)
• A chronology of international business cycles through non-parametric decoding
  Research Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City (2010)
  by Travis J. Berge & Shu-Chun Chen & Hsieh Fushing & Òscar Jordà
  (ReDIF-paper, fip:fedkrw:rwp11-13)
• A chronology of turning points in economic activity: Spain, 1850-2011
  Research Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City (2011)
  by Travis J. Berge & Òscar Jordà
  (ReDIF-paper, fip:fedkrw:rwp11-14)
• Predicting recessions with leading indicators: model averaging and selection over the business cycle
  Research Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City (2013)
  by Travis J. Berge
  (ReDIF-paper, fip:fedkrw:rwp13-05)
• Currency Carry Trades
  NBER Chapters, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2010)
  by Travis Berge & Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor
  (ReDIF-chapter, nbr:nberch:12216)
• Currency Carry Trades
  NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2010)
  by Travis J. Berge & Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor
  (ReDIF-paper, nbr:nberwo:16491)
• Has globalization increased the synchronicity of international business cycles?
  MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany (2012)
  by Berge, Travis
  (ReDIF-paper, pra:mprapa:42392)
• A chronology of turning points in economic activity: Spain, 1850–2011
  SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association (2013)
  by Travis Berge & Òscar Jordà
  (ReDIF-article, spr:series:v:4:y:2013:i:1:p:1-34)
• Time-Varying Uncertainty of the Federal Reserve's Output Gap Estimate
  The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press (2023)
  by Travis J. Berge
  (ReDIF-article, tpr:restat:v:105:y:2023:i:5:p:1191-1206)
• Currency Carry Trades
  NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press (2011)
  by Travis Berge & Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor
  (ReDIF-article, ucp:intsma:doi:10.1086/658309)
• Forecasting Disconnected Exchange Rates
  Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. (2014)
  by Travis J. Berge
  (ReDIF-article, wly:japmet:v:29:y:2014:i:5:p:713-735)
• Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators: Model Averaging and Selection over the Business Cycle
  Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. (2015)
  by Travis J. Berge
  (ReDIF-article, wly:jforec:v:34:y:2015:i:6:p:455-471)